Changes In Interspecific Interactions Research Articles

Impacts of climate‐driven changes in habitat phenology on dynamics of niche overlaps and spatial associations in a boreal waterbird community

A fundamental, yet little‐explored, question is if climate change has affected niche relationships and spatial associations of native non‐invasive species in established local communities, potentially affecting interspecific interactions and community organization. Here, long‐term (1991‒2020) changes in habitat niche overlaps (HNOs; measured in terms of three habitat categories describing the amount and development of shore vegetation and shore depth) and spatial associations (SAs; measured as co‐occurrence on lakes) were studied in relation to climate‐driven changes in habitat phenology in a community of eight migratory waterbird species breeding on 37 lakes in southeastern Finland. Overall timing of ice‐out date (IOD) and within‐season variation in the timing of ice‐out (standard deviation of IOD, SDIOD) in lakes determine habitat (lake) availability for waterbirds during the settling phase. Previous work has documented that IOD has advanced and SDIOD increased during 1991‒2020, with species responding differently to these changes in their habitat use. HNO and SA varied considerably in the 28 species pairs of eight species during the study period. The effect of IOD and SDIOD on that variation was generally small, effect sizes differing from zero only in eight out of 112 cases. However, the direction and magnitude of the effects of IOD and SDIOD on HNO and SA varied considerably among the species pairs. Although not statistically significant, overall differences in the direction and magnitude of the effect sizes suggested that the impacts of IOD and SDIOD on HNO and SA were stronger in species pairs in which the species were more similar in terms of settling phenology, and stronger for early settling species than for late settling species. Observed changes in niche relationships probably reflect changes in interspecific interactions and affect the possibilities for heterospecific information use in habitat selection.

The cascading effects of submerged macrophyte collapse on geese at Poyang Lake, China

Abstract Wetland habitat degradation has become more common in recent decades, leading to an increasing occurrence of food shortages for wild animals. Although the direct effects of food shortages on consumers have been well studied, the cascading effects on interspecific interactions remain poorly understood. Targeted research is required to improve our understanding of the impacts of food shortage on animals and to facilitate the development of conservation plans. Here, we used DNA metabarcoding and field observations of goose foraging behaviour to assess the cascading effects of collapse of tubers of Vallisneria spp., the dominant submerged macrophytes at Poyang Lake, China, on the diet of the swan goose (Anser cygnoides) and on the interspecific competition among goose species, the swan goose, the bean goose (Anser fabalis), and the greater white‐fronted goose (Anser albifrons). The metabarcoding analyses were carried out on faecal samples collected in winter 2016/17 and 2018/19, and behavioural observations were conducted in winter 2021/22. Our study elucidated the dietary compositions of the three goose species in greater detail than previously known. When Vallisneria tubers became rare, swan geese switched their foraging focus to Carex spp. and other grassland plants. When tuber abundance rebounded, swan geese resumed tuber foraging, suggesting the superiority of tubers as food for swan geese. Swan geese foraging on Carex, the major foods of bean geese and greater white‐fronted geese, potentially increased interspecific competition among goose species. Swan geese increased their pecking rates while bean geese increased time spent foraging apparently to cope with interspecific competition. Given the severe impacts of tuber collapses on waterbirds and the important role of Poyang Lake in waterbird protection, we advocate restoring submerged macrophytes to provide high quality foods for tuber‐foraging waterbirds. Our study emphasises that, in addition to directly influencing consumers, food collapses may also influence other species through changes in interspecific interactions. Our study also illustrates the importance of behavioural plasticity to cope with interspecific competition and to respond to environment change.

Mixed-species bird flocks re-assemble interspecific associations across an elevational gradient.

Understanding how non-trophic social systems respond to environmental gradients is still a challenge in animal ecology, particularly in comparing changes in species composition to changes in interspecific interactions. Here, we combined long-term monitoring of mixed-species bird flocks, data on participating species' evolutionary history and traits, to test how elevation affected community assemblages and interspecific interactions in flock social networks. Elevation primarily affected flocks through reassembling interspecific associations rather than modifying community assemblages. Specifically, flock networks at higher elevations (compared to low elevations) had stronger interspecific associations (larger average weighted degree), network connectivity (enhanced network density) and fewer subnetworks. A phylogenetic and functional perspective revealed that associations between similar species weakened, whereas connections between dissimilar and/or random species were unchanged or strengthened with elevation. Likewise, network assortativity for the traits of vertical stratum and breeding period declined with elevation. The overall pattern is a change from modular networks in the lowlands, where species join flocks with other species that have matching traits, to a more open, random system at high elevations. Collectively, this rewiring of interspecific networks across elevational gradients imparts network stability and resiliency and makes mixed-species flocks less sensitive to local extinctions caused by harsh environments.

Fall Decay Deceleration in Northern Latitudes: Merely a Matter of Cold?

The decomposition of cadavers and large vertebrate carcasses is the result of complex processes primarily influenced by ambient temperatures. Thus, low temperatures can alter decomposition by curtailing tissue autolysis and bacterial decomposition, and by limiting insect activity contributing to necromass removal. In this study, we tested whether carcass decomposition rate is modulated not only directly by temperature and insect occurrence, but also indirectly by the mediation of interactions among insects by ambient temperature. To test this, a comparative analysis of the decomposition of domestic pig carcasses in summer and fall was conducted in Atlantic Canada. The results indicated that carcass decomposition standardized to account for seasonal differences was significantly decelerated in the fall as opposed to the summer during the later decomposition stages and was sometimes incomplete. Moreover, the arrival, presence, and departure of insects from carcasses during ecological succession differed between summer and fall. Necrodes surinamensis (Fabricius) (Coleoptera: Silphidae) and Creophilus maxillosus (Linnaeus) (Coleoptera: Staphylinidae) maintained higher abundances late during succession in the fall than in the summer and their abundance was related to a decline in decomposition rates, probably because these species feed on dipteran larvae promoting necromass removal. These results demonstrate the variability in response to environmental parameters of insects of forensic importance and support the idea that slowed decomposition in the fall may be exacerbated by changes in interspecific interactions among insects. Furthermore, these results suggest that successional studies of insects carried out in the summer have little forensic utility for cadavers found in cold weather conditions.

Evolution of competitive traits changes species diversity in a natural field.

Studying the interaction between evolutionary and ecological processes (i.e. eco-evolutionary dynamics) has great potential to improve our understanding of biological processes such as species interactions, community assembly and ecosystem functions. However, most experimental studies have been conducted under controlled laboratory or mesocosm conditions, and the importance of these interactions in natural field communities has not been evaluated. In this study, we focused on the contemporary divergence of a competitive trait (the height-width ratio) of an annual grass Eleusine indica between urban and farmland populations and investigated how trait evolution affects ecological processes by transplanting E. indica individuals from lineages with different trait values into semi-natural grassland. The competitive trait of the transplanted individuals not only affected their own growth and fitness, but also affected the vegetative growth of the competing species and the species diversity. These results indicate that the evolution of competitive traits, even in a single species, can influence the community species diversity through changes in interspecific interactions. Eco-evolutionary interactions therefore play a crucial role in natural field environments. Our results suggest that understanding intraspecific variation in competitive traits driven by rapid evolution is essential for understanding interspecific competitive interactions, community assembly and species diversity.

Combining resource population dynamics into impact assessments of native and invasive species under abiotic change

Predicting future changes in interspecific interactions continues to be a challenge for environmental managers. This uncertainty is exacerbated by increasing biological invasions and the likelihood that the strength of trophic interactions among native species will change. Abiotic variables influence predator resource utilisation and abundance as well as resource population dynamics. Currently no practical metric or impact prediction methodology can adequately account for all of these factors. Functional Response (FR) methods successfully incorporate resource utilisation rates with regards to resource density to quantify consumer-resource interactions under varying abiotic contexts. This approach has been extended to create the Relative Impact Potential (RIP) metric to compare invader vs native impact. However, this does not incorporate resource abundance dynamics, which clearly can also change with abiotic context. We propose a Resource Reproduction Qualifier (RRQ) be incorporated into the RIP metric, whereby RRQ is the reciprocal of the fraction or proportion to which reproduction (e.g. of prey species) changes under an environmental context. This modifies the RIP score to give a more informative RIPq value, which may be contextually increased or decreased. We empirically demonstrate the utility and benefits of including RRQ into impact potential predictions with an invasive species (the lionfish Pterois volitans) and two European native species (shanny fish Lipophyris pholis and lesser spotted dogfish Scyliorhinus canicula) under different abiotic contexts. Despite high FR and abundance, lionfish impacts were reduced by increasing prey recruitment at higher temperatures, however, remained high impact overall. Shanny predatory impact increased with increasing temperature and was exacerbated by decreasing prey fecundity. Two population increase scenarios (50% and 80%) were assessed for lesser spotted dogfish under predicted temperature increases, preying upon E. marinus. Both scenarios indicated heightened predatory impact with increasing predator FR and decreasing prey fecundity. Our new metric demonstrates that accounting for resource reproductive responses to abiotic drivers, in tandem with the consumer per capita and abundance responses, better estimate the magnitudes of predicted inter-species interactions and ecological impacts. This can be used in stock assessments and predictions, as well as invasive species risk assessments in a comprehensive yet user-friendly manner..

Predators like it hot: Thermal mismatch in a predator-prey system across an elevational tropical gradient.

Climate change may have dramatic consequences for communities through both direct effects of peak temperatures upon individual species and through interspecific mismatches in thermal sensitivities of interacting organisms which mediate changes in interspecific interactions (i.e. predation). Despite this, there is a paucity of information on the patterns of spatial physiological sensitivity of interacting species (at both landscape and local scales) which could ultimately influence geographical variation in the effects of climate change on community processes. In order to assess where these impacts may occur, we first need to evaluate the spatial heterogeneity in the degree of mismatch in thermal tolerances between interacting organisms. We quantify the magnitude of interspecific mismatch in maximum (CTmax ) and minimum (CTmin ) thermal tolerances among a predator-prey system of dragonfly and anuran larvae in tropical montane (242-3,631m) and habitat (ponds and streams) gradients. To compare thermal mismatches between predator and prey, we coined the parameters maximum and minimum predatory tolerance margins (PTMmax and PTMmin ), or difference in CTmax and CTmin of interacting organisms sampled across elevational and habitat gradients. Our analyses revealed that: (a) predators exhibit higher heat tolerances than prey (~4°C), a trend which remained stable across habitats and elevations. In contrast, we found no differences in minimum thermal tolerances between these groups. (b) Maximum and minimum thermal tolerances of both predators and prey decreased with elevation, but only maximum thermal tolerance varied across habitats, with pond species exhibiting higher heat tolerance than stream species. (c) Pond-dwelling organisms from low elevations (0-1,500m a.s.l.) may be more susceptible to direct effects of warming than their highland counterparts because their maximum thermal tolerances are only slightly higher than their exposed maximum environmental temperatures. The greater relative thermal tolerance of dragonfly naiad predators may further increase the vulnerability of lowland tadpoles to warming due to potentially enhanced indirect effects of higher predation rates by more heat-tolerant dragonfly predators. However, further experimental work is required to establish the individual and population-level consequences of this thermal tolerance mismatch upon biotic interactions such as predator-prey. ​.

Linking habitat, predators and alternative prey to explain recruitment variations of an endangered caribou population

Habitat loss, fragmentation and alteration are frequently identified as important threats to biodiversity, inducing major changes in the structure and composition of species communities and the resulting interspecific interactions. North American woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) populations suffer from habitat modifications and most are currently in decline. It has been suggested that the conversion of old-growth coniferous forests into early-seral stages has increased cervid abundances, which have, in turn, stimulated a numerical response of predator populations, ultimately threatening caribou populations via a habitat-mediated apparent competition mechanism. Using a long-term dataset (1984–2012) of the Atlantic-Gaspésie caribou population, we quantified changes in interspecific interactions triggered by apparent competition between moose (Alces americanus) and caribou via the responses of two incidental predators, coyote (Canis latrans) and black bear (Ursus americanus). We also documented calf recruitment rates and analysed temporal trends (last three decades) in this vital rate. Inter-annual variations in autumn calf recruitment were mostly affected by the proxy of regional abundance of coyotes, which was highly correlated with moose and black bear proxies of abundance. The increase in coyote abundance proxy in the Gaspésie Peninsula following anthropogenic habitat modifications seems to be the main mechanism responsible for the current decline in the Atlantic-Gaspésie caribou population. Our analyses revealed some impacts of habitat alteration and the complexity of the resulting trophic cascades.

Disentangling the trophic interactions between American bullfrogs and native anurans: Complications resulting from post‐metamorphic ontogenetic niche shifts

Abstract The American bullfrog, Lithobates catesbeianus (Shaw, 1802), is considered one of the world's worst invaders because of its potential to affect native fauna adversely, especially amphibians, through predation, competition, breeding interference, and disease transmission. Here, the potential impact of introduced American bullfrogs (juveniles and adults) on native adult green frogs, Pelophylax kl. esculentus (Linnaeus, 1758), was investigated in a pond ecosystem by means of stomach‐content and stable‐isotope analyses. Specifically, this study was aimed at assessing the impact of the American bullfrog on native green frogs in terms of predation and competition (i.e. feeding ecology and habitat use), and uncovering changes in interspecific interactions linked to the ontogenetic dietary–habitat shifts of the invaders. Stomach contents and isotope analyses suggest that L. catesbeianus changes trophic position in the food chain and undergoes ontogenetic dietary–habitat shifts during its life cycle. The species therefore has the potential to exert a double impact on native green frogs: as a predator at the adult stage and as a competitor (for food and habitat use) at the juvenile stage. Stomach‐content and isotope analyses gave similar results, suggesting that the predation impact by adult American bullfrogs on green frogs is mediated by the presence of the alien red swamp crayfish, Procambarus clarkii (Girard, 1852). Juvenile American bullfrogs and native amphibians overlap in their diet composition and in their habitat use, suggesting the existence of potential competition between the two species. Ontogenetic dietary–habitat shifts in the American bullfrog, local conditions, and trophic interactions should be seriously considered in management approaches to promote the long‐term coexistence of L. catesbeianus and native amphibians. Such management options have been neglected in the literature, and are worthy of further investigation to understand their efficacy on native species.

Fluctuating interaction network and time-varying stability of a natural fish community.

Ecological theory suggests that large-scale patterns such as community stability can be influenced by changes in interspecific interactions that arise from the behavioural and/or physiological responses of individual species varying over time. Although this theory has experimental support, evidence from natural ecosystems is lacking owing to the challenges of tracking rapid changes in interspecific interactions (known to occur on timescales much shorter than a generation time) and then identifying the effect of such changes on large-scale community dynamics. Here, using tools for analysing nonlinear time series and a 12-year-long dataset of fortnightly collected observations on a natural marine fish community in Maizuru Bay, Japan, we show that short-term changes in interaction networks influence overall community dynamics. Among the 15 dominant species, we identify 14 interspecific interactions to construct a dynamic interaction network. We show that the strengths, and even types, of interactions change with time; we also develop a time-varying stability measure based on local Lyapunov stability for attractor dynamics in non-equilibrium nonlinear systems. We use this dynamic stability measure to examine the link between the time-varying interaction network and community stability. We find seasonal patterns in dynamic stability for this fish community that broadly support expectations of current ecological theory. Specifically, the dominance of weak interactions and higher species diversity during summer months are associated with higher dynamic stability and smaller population fluctuations. We suggest that interspecific interactions, community network structure and community stability are dynamic properties, and that linking fluctuating interaction networks to community-level dynamic properties is key to understanding the maintenance of ecological communities in nature.

Predicting the effect of habitat modification on networks of interacting species

A pressing challenge for ecologists is predicting how human-driven environmental changes will affect the complex pattern of interactions among species in a community. Weighted networks are an important tool for studying changes in interspecific interactions because they record interaction frequencies in addition to presence or absence at a field site. Here we show that changes in weighted network structure following habitat modification are, in principle, predictable. Our approach combines field data with mathematical models: the models separate changes in relative species abundance from changes in interaction preferences (which describe how interaction frequencies deviate from random encounters). The models with the best predictive ability compared to data requirement are those that capture systematic changes in interaction preferences between different habitat types. Our results suggest a viable approach for predicting the consequences of rapid environmental change for the structure of complex ecological networks, even in the absence of detailed, system-specific empirical data.

Climate drying amplifies the effects of land-use change and interspecific interactions on birds

Climate change may amplify the effects of land-use change, including induced changes in interspecific interactions. To investigate whether an avifauna changed over a period of severe drought, and if changes in avifaunas were related to changes in vegetation characteristics and the irruption of a despotic native species, the noisy miner Manorina melanocephala. In the box–ironbark forests of south-eastern Australia, we resurveyed the avifaunas and remeasured vegetation characteristics in 120 forest transects in 2010–2011 that had previously been measured in 1995–1997. The avifauna changed markedly over the prolonged drought, and changes were more marked in smaller fragments of remnant vegetation in which more pronounced vegetation change had occurred. The noisy miner increased differentially in smaller remnants adding to the declines, especially for small-bodied birds. Long droughts interspersed with short wet periods are projected for the region, so the imposition of climate effects on an already much-modified region has profound implications for the avifauna. The noisy miner has (and continues) to benefit from both land-use and climate change, so future sequences of drought interspersed with short wet periods are likely to lead to further changes in the avifauna as the miner extends its occupancy. Differential reductions in small nectarivores and insectivores will affect ecosystem processes, including the control of defoliating insects, seed dispersal and pollination.

Seasonal polyphenism in wing coloration affects species recognition in rubyspot damselflies (Hetaerina spp.).

Understanding how phenotypic plasticity evolves and in turn affects the course of evolution is a major challenge in modern biology. By definition, biological species are reproductively isolated, but many animals fail to distinguish between conspecifics and closely related heterospecifics. In some cases, phenotypic plasticity may interfere with species recognition. Here, we document a seasonal polyphenism in the degree of dark wing pigmentation in smoky rubyspot damselflies (Hetaerina titia) - a shift so pronounced that it led early researchers to classify different forms of H.titia as separate species. We further show how the seasonal colour shift impacts species recognition with the sympatric congener Hetaerina occisa. Interspecific aggression (territorial fights) and reproductive interference (mating attempts) are much more frequent early in the year, when H.titia more closely resembles H.occisa, compared to later in the year when the dark phase of H.titia predominates. Using wing colour manipulations of tethered damselflies, we show that the seasonal changes in interspecific interactions are caused not only by the seasonal colour shift but also by shifts in discriminatory behaviour in both species. We also experimentally tested and rejected the hypothesis that learning underlies the behavioural shifts in H.occisa. An alternative hypothesis, which remains to be tested, is that the seasonal polyphenism in H.titia wing coloration has resulted in the evolution of a corresponding seasonal polyphenism in species recognition in H.occisa. This study illustrates one of the many possible ways that plasticity in species recognition cues may influence the evolution of interspecific interactions.

Ant-mediated seed dispersal in a warmed world

Climate change affects communities both directly and indirectly via changes in interspecific interactions. One such interaction that may be altered under climate change is the ant-plant seed dispersal mutualism common in deciduous forests of eastern North America. As climatic warming alters the abundance and activity levels of ants, the potential exists for shifts in rates of ant-mediated seed dispersal. We used an experimental temperature manipulation at two sites in the eastern US (Harvard Forest in Massachusetts and Duke Forest in North Carolina) to examine the potential impacts of climatic warming on overall rates of seed dispersal (using Asarum canadense seeds) as well as species-specific rates of seed dispersal at the Duke Forest site. We also examined the relationship between ant critical thermal maxima (CTmax) and the mean seed removal temperature for each ant species. We found that seed removal rates did not change as a result of experimental warming at either study site, nor were there any changes in species-specific rates of seed dispersal. There was, however, a positive relationship between CTmax and mean seed removal temperature, whereby species with higher CTmax removed more seeds at hotter temperatures. The temperature at which seeds were removed was influenced by experimental warming as well as diurnal and day-to-day fluctuations in temperature. Taken together, our results suggest that while temperature may play a role in regulating seed removal by ants, ant plant seed-dispersal mutualisms may be more robust to climate change than currently assumed.

Different effects of climate change on the population dynamics of insects

Climate change affects the pattern of population dynamics of insects in different ways. Global warming not only leads to greater over-winter survival, earlier appearance in spring, an increase in the number of generations in a year, lengthening of the reproductive season, etc., but also affects their biotic associations as a result of changes in interspecific interactions. Changes in the density of insects in response to unusually hot summers provide us with useful indications of the potential effects of global warming. Different insect guilds respond differently to hot summers, which sometimes result in an increase in density and sometimes a decrease. These effects may occur immediately or be delayed by 1 or 2 years. As long as the regime remains unchanged, the affected population can recover sooner or later. Even a single-year change in climate, however, if it allows predators to outbreak, may be strong enough to cause a regime shift. Most insects are susceptible to heat stress between 28 and 32 °C, global warming could have a more profound impact on the population dynamics and biodiversity of arthropods than has previously been predicted.

Tree species identity and interactions with neighbors determine nutrient leaching in model tropical forests

An ecosystem containing a mixture of species that differ in phenology, morphology, and physiology might be expected to resist leaching of soil nutrients to a greater extent than one composed of a single species. We tested the effects of species identity and plant-life-form richness on nutrient leaching at a lowland tropical site where deep infiltration averages >2 m year(-1). Three indigenous tree species with contrasting leafing phenologies (evergreen, dry-season deciduous, and wet-season deciduous) were grown in monoculture and together with two other life-forms with which they commonly occur in tropical forests: a palm and a giant, perennial herb. To calculate nutrient leaching over an 11-year period, concentrations of nutrients in soil water were multiplied by drainage rates estimated from a water balance. The effect of plant-life-form richness on retention differed according to tree species identity and nutrient. Nitrate retention was greater in polycultures of the dry-season deciduous tree species (mean of 7.4 kg ha(-1) year(-1) of NO(3)-N lost compared to 12.7 in monoculture), and calcium and magnesium retention were greater in polycultures of the evergreen and wet-season deciduous tree species. Complementary use of light led to intensification of soil exploitation by roots, the main agent responsible for enhanced nutrient retention in some polycultures. Other mechanisms included differences in nutrient demand among species, and avoidance of catastrophic failure due to episodic weather events or pest outbreaks. Even unrealistically simple multi-life-form mimics of tropical forest can safeguard a site's nutrient capital if careful attention is paid to species' characteristics and temporal changes in interspecific interactions.

Ecosystem models on the evolutionary time scale: a review and perspective

Computer simulations of ecosystems are useful for revealing in detail the ecological processes concerned with major bioevents. Unlike empirical approaches, theoretical models allow us to see virtual evolutionary changes in interspecific interactions in a much shorter time as compared with evolutionary experiments. Some recent ecosystem models succeeded in constructing hypothetical ecosystems with high species diversity by introducing low connectance and gradual evolution. Some of these hypothetical ecosystems had similar properties to real ecosystems. Some models incorporated biologically meaningful rules for constructing interspecific interactions, whereas others did not. Both types of model are complementary to each other: which to choose depends on the purpose of the study. Most of the former type of model focused on incorporating biologically realistic processes. They do not aim to mimic the topological features of real ecosystems. It is quite natural that such models did not reproduce ecosystems similar to real ecosystems. Therefore, the reality of such models should be tested not only by using the topology of the ecosystem but also by using parameters which are suitable for the purpose of the models.

Water Level Regulations and Fisheries in Rainy Lake and the Namakan Reservoir

The difference between the yearly maximum and minimum water levels (YMXR) is an index of lake dynamics: shoals are exposed and inundated, nutrients are oxidized and reduced, and the diversity and density of the aquatic plant community are affected. Shoals and emergent macrophytes provide spawning habitat for fish. The 5-yr moving variance of YMXR fluctuates regularly with periods of about 11.2 yr (periodicity of sunspot cycles). This reflects the effects of within-year consecutive periods of storms and dry spells. Water level regulations resulted in changes in both amplitudes and frequencies of YMXR compared with natural fluctuations. We established links between fluctuations in YMXR and fluctuations in fish populations. Water level regulations, through their effects on YMXR, corresponded to changes in interspecific interactions on Rainy Lake and the Namakan Reservoir. In both, walleye's (Stizostedion vitreum) fluctuations were synchronized with both those of lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) and northern pike (Esox lucius) more than those of either species with the other two. On the Namakan Reservoir, YMXR fluctuations were accentuated by water level regulation; on Rainy Lake, they were dampened. Regulations should consider frequencies and amplitudes of changes in water level and their effect on fish populations.

The potential effects of climatic change on agricultural insect pests

Climate and weather can substantially influence the development and distribution of insects. Anthropogenically induced climatic change arising from increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases would, therefore, be likely to have a significant effect on agricultural insect pests. Current best estimates of changes in climate indicate an increase in global mean annual temperatures of 1°C by 2025 and 3°C by the end of the next century. Such increases in temperature have a number of implications for temperature-dependent insect pests in mid-latitude regions. Changes in climate may result in changes in geographical distribution, increased overwintering, changes in population growth rates, increases in the number of generations, extension of the development season, changes in crop-pest synchrony, changes in interspecific interactions and increased risk of invasion by migrant pests. To illustrate some of these effects, results of a study investigating the impact of climatic change on the European corn borer ( Ostrinia nubilalis) in Europe are shown. Under the climatic changes projected by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model, northward shifts in the potential distribution of the European corn borer of up to 1220 km are estimated to occur, with an additional generation found in nearly all regions where it is currently known to occur. A number of priorities for future research into the effects of climatic changes on agricultural insect pests can be identified. These include: examination of the influence of climatic variables on insect pests, long-term monitoring of pest population levels and insect behaviour, consideration of possible climatic changes in research into pest management systems and identification of potential migrants.